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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.