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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."